Re-signing Cespedes Will Be Key to Mets’ Success
One of the biggest names on this winter’s free agent market is the star of the Mets’ lineup, Yoenis Cespedes. On Tuesday, I discussed two of the other big free agent prizes on the market, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and what the Blue Jays’ course of action should be regarding two of their most important players. Today’s focus shifts to the Mets, whose power hitting outfielder signed a three year deal prior to last season, but it came with an opt-out after 2016, which he has already exercised. That leaves the Mets with a big decision – a franchise-altering decision – to make on its most valuable offensive player.
When I say it’s their decision, I really mean that all of the cards are in the Mets’ favor. All indications are that Cespedes loves playing in New York and the Mets are the team he wants to be a part of. I believe it. Assuming that’s true, it would mean that the Mets wouldn’t have to offer more than any other team for his services, but just match anyone’s best offer. Cespedes had trouble finding the long-term deal he wanted last winter, but that shouldn’t be the case this year in a much weaker free agent class. He is arguably the biggest prize on the market and should have no problem getting a five or six year deal.
Whether the Mets are willing to offer that remains to be seen, but they would be foolish not to. The Mets have a lot of power in their lineup – they set a franchise record in round-trippers in 2016 – but Cespedes was the only legitimate middle-of-the-order bat on the team. The Mets are loaded with guys who hit a lot of home runs but hit about .250 or below, like Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, and Lucas Duda, not to mention all of those hitters are left-handed. Not counting switch hitters, the Mets do not have a single quality right-handed hitter projected to be a regular starter other than David Wright, whose long-term health remains a serious cause for concern.
One of the criticisms of Cespedes is that he is less of an elite player than he is made out to be. For example, he is only a .271 career hitter with an underwhelming .325 on-base percentage. However, the batting average is dragged down by a poor 2013 season he had with Oakland, which was just his second in the majors. As for his on-base skills, Cespedes had shown much improved plate discipline since the trade to Mets, and carries a .348 clip in a season and a half with the team. His OPS was a career best .884 last year.
Sure, the Mets are a team built around their starting pitching, but if they lose Cespedes and don’t replace him with a comparable middle-of-the-order presence (Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, etc.), it’s hard to believe they will be able to score enough to support their strong pitching. In 2016, the Mets gave up the third fewest amount of runs in the majors and still just squeaked into a wild card spot by one game. You can point to the fact that better health from the likes of Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom will make their pitching even better, but really how much better will it be? Maybe with some luck, they can finish first instead of third in pitching, but that may not make much of a difference. The Mets’ offense was only tied for 25th in baseball even with Cespedes, so losing him could very well give the Mets one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. It also can’t be understated how much a hitter with Cespedes’ presence helps out the rest of a lineup. It’s something that statistics can’t quantify, but naturally pitchers will give the hitters in front of him better pitches to hit.
Lastly, there would be serious PR implications of letting Cespedes walk. While front offices shouldn’t make decisions based on how they think their fans will react to them, it’s safe to say that the New York fans will be infuriated if the Mets don’t make a serious attempt to re-sign Cespedes. After all, New York is the biggest sports market in the country, and it’s a little puzzling how frugal the Mets have been in free agency for the past half-decade. Ever since Jason Bay signed his contract prior to the 2010 season, the Mets have not been major players in free agency. Maybe they were scared off by what would become a disastrous contract, but the problem was that time period coincided with an inability to produce many good hitting prospects. Before signing Cespedes last year, the Mets were basically managing like a low-budget, small market team. Most importantly now, the Mets are relevant again. They’ve just made consecutive playoff appearances for the second time in franchise history and have a real chance to be a World Series contender again in 2017. What better time to go all in even if it means giving out a contract that is slightly past your comfort zone? Plus, there will come a time where the core of the Mets’ elite starting rotation will all hit free agency around the same time. They’ll probably have to choose which ones they want to keep, so they may as well go big now when their brilliant young pitchers are all still under contract.
Yoenis Cespedes has become a fan favorite in the Big Apple and he loves playing there. You could say he has turned the franchise’s fortunes around more than any player since Mike Piazza. General Manager Sandy Alderson can’t afford to blow this. Although some reports have led people to believe the Mets aren’t interested in a long term deal, that’s not necessarily true, and as Barry Bloom of MLB.com reports, Alderson is well aware of the slugger’s importance to the club and would love to have him back. “All things considered, we’d love to have him back”. Mets fans would likely love to see him back too, whatever the cost.
Blue Jays Facing Big Decisions Heading Into Offseason
The Toronto Blue Jays are facing one of the more interesting winters of any team in baseball, as two faces of their franchise for the past decade, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, are set to test free agency. They also happen to be the two best offensive players on the market, except for maybe Yoenis Cespedes. This leaves the Blue Jays with some tough decisions to make, since both players are going to command large annual salaries and the team should face plenty of competition for their services.
The Blue Jays need do everything they can to extend both Bautista and Encarnacion, which is easier said than done. The likelihood is that they will be forced to choose one or the other, with many of the opinion that both will leave Toronto. General Manager Ross Atkins and President of Baseball Operations Mark Shapiro cannot let that happen.
As good as the Blue Jays’ lineup is, losing two guys who have been right in the heart of the lineup for the better part of the past decade would be tough to overcome, not to mention the possibility of losing Michael Saunders as well, who is also a free agent. There aren’t any other free agents for Toronto to realistically go after that would be able to replace that production. Their window to win is right now, and letting both sluggers walk would create a gaping hole in the lineup.
Handing big contracts out to Encarnacion and Bautista is not without risk. Both players will be in their mid-thirties at the start of next season (Bautista will be 36 and Encarnacion, 34), and the Jays will need to pay other key players on their roster in the coming seasons. Josh Donaldson is set to hit free agency after the 2018 season, and Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman are the team’s only two starting pitchers who will still be under team control by that time. That could create a necessity to spend more on starting pitching, either by resigning some of their current starters whose contracts are set to expire or acquiring other arms on the open market. Additionally, both Bautista or Encarnacion would likely require some time at DH given their respective ages. Despite the risks, Toronto still needs to take a chance on one of their franchise icons. The question then becomes, which would be better to sign?
It’s safe to say Jose Bautista is and has been the face of the Blue Jays. He is their most outspoken player and the leader of the team. Bautista has probably been a slightly better hitter than Edwin Encarnacion over his tenure in Toronto. However, he had a down year last season and was hampered by injuries. Encarnacion, in addition to being two years younger, has been able to stay on the field more and produce more consistently over the last five years.
For these reasons, it is likely that teams will be willing to give Encarnacion more years and maybe a higher annual salary. That makes it harder for Toronto to match other teams’ offers. By signing Bautista instead, they probably wouldn’t have to commit to as much money down the road.
Ideally, the Blue Jays and their fans would love to have both players back. That could be unrealistic, but since were given a qualifying offer yesterday, Toronto will net a draft pick in case either leaves. The team has a very difficult choice to make, but it’s imperative that they don’t let both of these players leave.
Whatever happens, it could be the end of an era in Toronto. Bautista and Encarnacion are second and third on the Blue Jays’ all-time home run list, respectively, and are both among the greatest players ever to wear a Blue Jays uniform. No matter what, both players will always be remembered fondly by fans as part of the core that brought Toronto back to relevance and ending a 22-year playoff drought.
Midseason NFL MVP Candidates
After eight weeks of the NFL season, it’s a good time to take a look at some of the early frontrunners for MVP. In ranking my top ten candidates, I took into consideration both the player’s performance and that player’s importance to his team’s success.
- Matt Ryan, QB (Atlanta Falcons)
The veteran is enjoying his best season so far, and finds himself atop the league leaders in passing yards, even before his superb Thursday night performance. He is also second only to Tom Brady with a 119.0 quarterback rating. Ryan has figured out a way to improve his accuracy and limit his turnovers in a big way in 2016, after experiencing a couple of down seasons the last few years.
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB (Dallas Cowboys)
Not only is he the front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Elliott could very well take home the MVP award with the way he has played. Dak Prescott’s fantastic rookie season has garnered a good deal of attention in Tony Romo’s absence, but the Cowboys love to run the ball and Elliott has been the focal point of one of the NFL’s best offenses. He has averaged 114.1 yards per game on the ground, nearly 20 yards more than any other player.
- Derek Carr, QB (Oakland Raiders)
The resurgent Oakland Raiders are 6-2 and Carr is a huge reason why. Possibly the single most important player to his team’s success this season, the third year quarterback is fifth in the NFL in passing yards, while throwing 17 touchdown passes and just 3 interceptions. He just came off of a ridiculous game against the Buccaneers where shattered the Raiders’ franchise record for passing yards in a single game.
- Von Miller, OLB (Denver Broncos)
Miller has once again wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks, with 8.5 sacks to show for it. Defensive players don’t usually win the MVP, but Miller is a special player, and the Broncos defense is so dominant with him leading it that he merits serious consideration.
- A.J. Green, WR (Cincinnati Bengals)
Green paces all players in catches and receiving yards, and would probably have a better chance of winning the MVP than Julio Jones if the Bengals were to make the playoffs. Andy Dalton is good, but isn’t having the MVP-caliber season that Matt Ryan is, which makes Green’s numbers stand out just a little more.
- DeMarco Murray, RB (Tennessee Titans)
The Titans are in the playoff mix in the NFC South, and they owe a lot of that to Murray’s bounce-back year. He has proven that last year’s terrible performance with the Eagles was just an anomaly, and the 2016 version of Murray looks much more like the player who led the NFL in rushing two years ago. Murray has been a force both running the ball and catching passes in the backfield.
- Julio Jones, WR (Atlanta Falcons)
As good as Matt Ryan has been, Jones makes him even better with his electrifying speed and ability to make acrobatic catches. Jones is the only player in the NFL with at least 30 catches and 20 yards per catch. He is the most dynamic player on the NFL’s best offense.
- David Johnson, RB (Arizona Cardinals)
Johnson leads all running backs in catches and receiving yards, while placing third in rushing yards. He has also run for eight touchdowns and accumulated a larger percentage of his team’s offensive yardage than any other player in the league. If the Cardinals are going to turn their season around in the second half, they will need Johnson to continue playing at a superstar level.
- Drew Brees, QB (New Orleans Saints)
Brees has been his usual self, completing nearly 70% of his passes and leading the league in passing yards per game. The Saints defense is awful and they will have to make the playoffs for Brees to be voted on as MVP, but if New Orleans does find its way into the playoffs after a rough start, it will most certainly be because of Brees, who keeps solidifying his case as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time.
- Lorenzo Alexander, OLB (Buffalo Bills)
The 33 year-old linebacker is one of this season’s best success stories. He was signed way back in 2005 by the Panthers as an undrafted free agent, but has spent most of his career as a special teams player for the Redskins, earning a Pro Bowl nod for his special teams work in 2012. However, he has elevated his game all the way to becoming the NFL’s sack leader through Week 8 with nine, and has actually doubled his career total this year. Alexander is one of the most important players on a good Bills’ defense that is in the middle of the playoff race.
Top Athletes Excelling Past Their Prime
The remarkable story of David Ortiz’s incredible final season has gotten me thinking about other athletes who are excelling at an age far past what is normally considered an athlete’s prime. Ortiz deserved the attention he got this year in every way, because what he was able to accomplish in his final season was nothing short of historic. You are probably well aware of Big Papi’s accomplishments by now, and I will be writing another piece dedicated to Ortiz in the near future. For now, here are some other athletes who have been able to sustain a high level of performance in the latter stages of their careers.
Bartolo Colon
“Big Sexy” is the oldest active player in the major leagues, but that didn’t stop him from being named to his fourth all-star team in 2016. Despite winning the 2005 AL Cy Young Award, it can be argued that the last five seasons have constituted the best stretch of Colon’s career. The former power pitcher has reinvented himself by relying almost solely on his sub-90 MPH fastball, but with as good of command as any pitcher in baseball. And despite the Mets enviable collection of young starting pitchers, it was Colon who ended up being their most durable arm last year.
Ichiro Suzuki
He’s not close to the player he once was, but at age 42, it’s remarkable that Ichiro was able to hit .291 and provide solid value to the Marlins in a part-time role. Only Pete Rose had more hits in baseball history from age 27 onward.
Frank Gore
It may be lost because the Colts do not emphasize running the football much, or maybe because he has been so good for so long, but Frank Gore is still one of the more reliable ball carriers in the NFL. He is currently on pace to become just the fifth running back in NFL history to run for 1,00 yards at age 33 or older, and the first since 1984, when John Riggins ran for 1,239 yards with the Redskins. In fact, there have only been 47 instances where a 30 year-old player has rushed for 1,000 yards (Gore has already done it twice).
Adam Vinatieri
Yes, it’s much more common for kickers and punters to stick around a long time, but Vinatieri is truly in a class of his own. Not only is he the oldest and longest tenured player in the NFL, he is the best kicker in football, and maybe the greatest of all-time. This season, Vinatieri broke Mike Vanderjagt’s NFL record by connecting on his 43rd consecutive field goal attempt. Hopefully, being a kicker won’t stop the Hall of Fame voters from giving him the honor he is due. That might be a long ways away, since Vinatieri could probably play another 10 years if he wanted to.
Tom Brady
You wouldn’t know it from watching him play, but Brady is 39. Since coming back from his suspension, he has been as good as ever, already eclipsing 1,300 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions through four games. His passer rating is an otherworldly 133.9. He is showing no signs of slowing down, and should still be among the NFL’s best quarterbacks for years to come.
Terrence Newman
At age 38, Newman is still a starting cornerback in the NFL, which is extremely rare considering corners need to be among the fastest players on the field. Not only that, but he starts for the NFL’s top-ranked defense, the Minnesota Vikings.
Dirk Nowitzki
The future Basketball Hall of Famer really has nothing left to prove, but he’s still going strong. Although he was not selected for the All-Star Game last year for just the second time since 2001, Dirk still dropped 18.3 points per game while grabbing 6.5 rebounds per game. With Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Garnett all retired, Nowitzki is one of the last remaining players from the group of greats who debuted in the late 90s.
Jaromir Jagr
No list like this would be complete without Jagr, who will turn 45 this NHL season. When Jagr debuted in the NHL in 1990, many of the current active players weren’t born yet. Last season, he scored 66 points for the Panthers, and two weeks ago, joined Gordie Howe and Wayne Gretzky as the third NHL player to score 750 career goals in a career.
Kerri Walsh Jennings
As one of the greatest volleyball players of all-time, Walsh Jennings was able to capture another Olympic medal in Rio, this time with April Ross as her partner. Although it wasn’t the gold she is accustomed to, Walsh Jennings is still as good a player as any in beach volleyball, and she remains a dominant blocker and hitter nobody wants to go up against.
Michael Phelps
We’ve become used to Phelps winning nearly every swimming gold medal at the Olympics, so a lot of people may not have realized that before Phelps won five gold medals and one silver in Rio this summer, no swimmer as old as 31 had ever won an individual swimming gold. Phelps won two individual gold medals (although fellow American Anthony Ervin also won gold at age 35, making him now the oldest). While most simmers are done competing in their 30s, nobody really doubts that Phelps could return to the Olympics in Tokyo in 2020 and win some more if he wanted to.
Oksana Chusovitina
You may not know her name, but if you watched gymnastics in the Olympics, you’ll remember her as the 41 year-old gymnast from Uzbekistan competing against athletes less than half her age. Chusovitina has won two Olympic medals – including a silver in 2008 at age 33. In a sport where most athletes begin to decline in their early 20s, what Chusovitina is doing is truly incredible.
World Series Game 7 Set for Historic Finish
Tonight, it all comes down to one more game. There’s nothing in sports quite like a win-or-go-home game, but there’s something extra special about the seventh game of the World Series. We don’t get to see them too often – tonight will mark just the seventh Game 7 in the last 29 World Series matchups – and there’s something to be said about the uniquely long length of the baseball season coming down to one single game.
Throw in the historic significance of the Cubs and Indians currently having the longest championship droughts in baseball, and tonight’s game is truly one for the ages. We can only hope that whoever wins, it is a thrilling, well played game that can become engrained as an integral piece of baseball history. The World Series has produced many of the sport’s most iconic images – Babe Ruth’s called shot, Don Larsen’s perfect game, series-ending home runs by Bill Mazeroski and Joe Carter, the incredible comeback by the 1986 Mets – that maybe we can witness one of these kinds of moments tonight.
So whether you’re a lifelong baseball fan, just a casual fan, or even any kind of sports fan in general, take a moment to acknowledge how special tonight will be. It’s the type of moment sports were created for. And for one fan base, the result will be something they’ve waited their whole lives to see.
Postseason Redefining the Use of Relief Pitchers
One trend that’s become clear this postseason is that managers will not hesitate to use their bullpens in unconventional ways. Managers, specifically Terry Francona and Dave Roberts, have not been afraid to push their bullpen aces past their comfort zones, utilizing them for multiple inning or putting them in the game much earlier than usual.
No disrespect to Cody Allen, who is a fantastic relief pitcher, but Andrew Miller is the unquestioned best reliever the Cleveland Indians have. Traditional baseball theory says that you’re supposed to save your best reliever for the end of the game to close it out. But Francona has realized that some of the highest leverage moments his team has faced in the postseason have come earlier, such as in the sixth or seventh with men on base. The formula has been to go to Miller in those situations, let him pitch as long as he can, and have Allen, or maybe Dan Otero or Bryan Shaw, ready to back him up. The strategy has worked wonders for the Indians to this point, and Francona’s bullpen management is arguably the biggest factor as to why they won six consecutive playoff games before losing in Toronto last night.
Dave Roberts has also decided to throw traditional bullpen roles out the window. The Dodgers may not have the same depth of bullpen arms as Cleveland does, but they do have Kenley Jansen. Roberts made a statement in the epic fifth game of their NLDS series against the Nationals by pushing Jansen to his limit and having him throw 51 pitches. Jansen was effective as usual, but was put into the game so early that he didn’t even finish, instead handing the reigns over to Clayton Kershaw, who had pitched two days prior.
The must-win factor of playoff baseball obviously affects the way the games are managed, as you are both forced to, but due to the frequent off days, also able to do things you normally wouldn’t. It wouldn’t be feasible to use your best relief pitcher for two innings every single game in the middle of June. But it’s fair to wonder if going forward, we will see managers take a much different approach to their bullpen usage. The save is an overvalued stat, and whereas at one time, relievers would only land big contracts if they were closers with high save totals, teams have begun to place an increasing value on middle relievers. Nearly every team still has a single closer that’s rarely used before the ninth inning, but will we start to see managers break away from that strategy? Say you are holding on to a one run lead in the seventh, when the starter puts two men on base to start the inning. It might not be a bad idea to go with your best reliever in that spot rather than your typical “seventh-inning guy”. It’s unlikely that there will be a spot in the game of even more pressure or importance later on.
What we are also seeing more and more in the playoffs is that teams are willing to pull their starters earlier to get to their bullpens. It happened the last few years with the Royals and again this year with the Indians. Time will only tell if these trends will continue, but it will certainly make for a fascinating offseason in regards to the pitching market. The pool of top level starters is scarce, but relievers such as Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, and Mark Melancon should be lined up for huge paydays, not to mention the usual selection of quality middle relievers.
2017 Today’s Game Ballot Unveiled
On Monday, the Baseball Hall of Fame released the names of ten veteran Hall of Fame candidates that will appear on the 2017 Today’s Game ballot. It will be the inaugural vote for the Today’s Game Committee, one of the four newly created era committees that will vote in cycles, replacing the old system that had been in place since 2010. This ballot includes players, managers, and executives who worked the bulk of their careers in the period from 1988 to 2001. Here’s a look at the ten members on the ballot, followed by my analysis of the candidates.
Harold Baines
Baines is best known for his time with the White Sox, where he developed into a consistent 20 home run, 90 RBI hitter. That translated into a 22-year career during which he hit .289 with 384 home runs and 1,628 RBI. His 2,866 hits are actually the most of any eligible player not in the Hall of Fame, besides Rafael Palmeiro and Barry Bonds, who would be locks if it weren’t for their connections to PEDs. Baines also hit an impressive .324 across six different postseasons in his career, which only enhances his resume. The thing working against Baines is that he served as a DH more than he played the field and he wasn’t a very good outfielder when he was out there.
Albert Belle
Belle was a phenomenal hitter in the 1990s, and one could only guess what his total numbers would have looked like had he not been forced into an early retirement due to a form of arthritis in his hip. He slugged .564 in his 12-year career, belting 381 home runs and 389 doubles. He is still the only player to reach 50 home runs and 50 doubles in one season. What many fans tend to forget is that prior to his career ending condition, Belle rarely missed a game; he was actually baseball’s active leader in consecutive games played after Cal Ripken’s streak came to an end. The two factors that will present the largest roadblocks to Belle entering Cooperstown will be his brief career by Hall of Fame standards and his often controversial behavior throughout his career, both with the media and other players.
Will Clark
Will Clark was a steady performer for a decade and a half, mostly with the Giants and Rangers. The 1st baseman finished his career in 2000 with a highly impressive slash line of .303/.384/.497, although he was slightly overshadowed during his time by other 1st basemen who hit a lot more home runs than he did. Nonetheless, Clark was a consistent producer at the plate who probably never got the recognition he deserved.
Orel Hershiser
Hershiser certainly had flashes of brilliance throughout his career. His historic 1988 season was one for the ages, as he set an MLB record with 59 consecutive scoreless innings and was named NLCS and World Series MVP for the Dodgers. Hershiser was phenomenal in the postseason throughout his career, compiling an 8-3 record and a 2.59 ERA across 22 appearances (18 starts).
Mark McGwire
He only fell off of the writer’s ballot last year, but McGwire will hope to get in through the Veteran’s Committee on his first try. The 12-time all-star ranks 11th in career home runs, highlighted by his record setting 1998 season, when he bashed 70 long balls. His candidacy in the eyes of the writers was undoubtedly hurt over the years due to his admission of taking performance enhancing drugs during his career, but it will be interesting to see if Big Mac fares better in front of the Today’s Game Committee. If he can garner at least 50% of the vote, that will be great news for the future prospects of guys like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.
Davey Johnson
Johnson managed in parts of four different decades, most memorably as the leader of the 1986 World Champion New York Mets. His career winning percentage sits an impressive .562, which ranks ninth among all manages who managed over 2,000 games. The other eight are all in the Hall of Fame. Notably, Johnson only managed one full season in which his team had a losing record. Although he was fired four times during his career, one can certainly argue that a few of them were unjust.
Lou Piniella
He managed 23 seasons in the big leagues, compiling a total of 1,835 wins. Piniella’s highlights include a World Championship with the 1990 Reds, taking the Mariners to their first postseason in 1995, and later leading Seattle to a major record 116 wins in 2001.
John Schuerholz
Schuerholz spent 26 years as a general manager in the big leagues, first with the Royals and later with the Braves. He is noted for putting together the dominant Royals teams of the 1980s, including the 1985 championship squad, and the Braves dynasty of the 1990s. A full list of his most significant transactions is far too extensive to write here, but a few of the most memorable were the acquisitions of players like Greg Maddux, Fred McGriff, and Gary Sheffield, and the drafting and amateur signings of countless future all-stars.
George Steinbrenner
The longtime Yankees owner presided over 11 American League pennants and 7 World Championships. His behavior was often viewed as controversial, but Steinbrenner knew how to build a winning ballclub.
Bud Selig
The ninth commissioner of baseball held the position for longer than anyone other than Kennesaw Mountain Landis. During his tenure, he implemented wild card teams (and later the wild card playoff game), interleague play, and instant replay. He also presided over the 1994 strike and the steroid era, leaving somewhat of a black mark over his legacy. However, the game became much more profitable than ever before during Selig’s tenure. Selig will be a very interesting candidate on this year’s ballot, as it’s anyone’s guess on how the committee will view his contributions to the game.
The Today’s Game Committee consists of 16 members, each of whom may select anywhere between zero and five candidates for enshrinement. As with the regular BBWAA ballot, a candidate must receive 75% of the vote to be inducted.
Now for my analysis of the ballot, starting with the players. Harold Baines was a great hitter, but his career totals are more a factor of being very good throughout a very long career than ever being a Hall-of-Fame caliber performer. It also doesn’t help that he didn’t contribute anything defensively. Will Clark, while also very good, just wasn’t outstanding for a long enough time for me to say he belongs in the Hall of Fame. He was never as good as he was the first six years of his career, when he often garnered MVP consideration, and that simply isn’t a long enough peak to justify voting for him. Orel Hershiser falls into that same category for me. From 1984-1989, he finished in the top three in the National League in ERA five times. However, for the rest of his career, an 11 year stretch, his ERA+ was only 100, meaning he was merely a league-average pitcher, and he never finished in the top 10 in ERA again.
The two players who I believe have the best cases are Albert Belle and Mark McGwire. Belle had a short career, but he was a historically dominant hitter during the time he played. I generally prefer players who were Hall-of-Fame worthy for close to a decade rather than players who were very good, but never great over a longer career. McGwire didn’t do a whole lot other than hit home runs, but he hit for power better than mostly anyone else, and was among the most feared hitters in baseball for over a decade. He also walked a lot, resulting in a .394 career on-base percentage that makes up for his mediocre batting average. Belle and McGwire would both probably have my vote, although each of them does carry their baggage.
Both managers, Lou Piniella and Davey Johnson, present strong resumes. Non-players’ careers are much more difficult to evaluate. I’m on the fence in regards to both of them, so if I had a ballot, I’d probably leave them off. Still, if either was inducted this year, I wouldn’t have an issue with it.
John Schuerholz could be the strongest candidate on the ballot. His long-standing success for two different teams make it easy for me to say yes to him.
George Steinbrenner is another candidate I would probably say yes to, given his major role in rebuilding the Yankees dynasty and helping to make the franchise arguably the most successful and recognizable in pro sports.
I would not feel comfortable at this time with Bud Selig getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. It doesn’t feel right to me that historically great players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have found such a difficult time gaining any kind of momentum, while the man who presided over the steroid era would be a first-ballot inductee. My opinion will may very well change on this matter, but for now, I’m not ready to induct Selig into Cooperstown.
Usually, it’s unlikely, though not unprecedented, for more than one or two candidates to get in on the veterans ballots. I think Selig will get in, as well as Schuerholz. Every commissioner who served at least seven years is in the Hall of Fame, although some did have to wait. Despite my opinion of him, he did do a lot of good for the game. Pure general managers have found it very difficult to get in, but Schuerholz had such a great deal of success, that it would be hard to find a more qualified GM.
I don’t see either manager getting in this year. Johnson and Piniella could be inducted at some point, but they’re not in the same class as Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa, and Joe Torre, who were all inducted three years ago.
Steinbrenner has been on a veterans ballot before, but received less than half of the votes, so it would take a big jump for him to get in this time.
It may be more likely than not that no player from this ballot gets in. For Baines, Clark, and Hershiser, the reasons I listed above in my analysis will probably be the reasons most of the voters will feel a reluctance to write their names down. Belle and McGwire, on the other hand have too many obstacles in their way. Belle was never the most well-liked guy in the game, and it’s very hard for me to believe that at least 12 of 16 voters will be able to look past McGwire’s PED use, and even if they do, he’s still a very borderline candidate.
The results of this vote will be revealed on December 5th, when a few of these names could join baseball immortality, and in January, the results from the annual BBWAA election will be announced.
Defense Wins Championships, Not Quarterbacks
It has long been said that said that the quarterback is the most important position in football, perhaps even more so in the past decade with the explosion of passing numbers and teams’ ever increasing reliance on airing the football out. With 4,000 passing yards becoming ordinary for quarterbacks, many believe that you not only need a good quarterback to be a championship contending team, but an elite franchise quarterback.
If the start to this season has proven anything, it’s that this is not entirely true. There are five teams off to 3-0 starts – the Patriots, Ravens, Broncos, Eagles, and Vikings. Interestingly, only the Ravens from this group have used a quarterback that was on their roster last year. Three of these teams, the Patriots, Broncos, and Eagles, have not used a quarterback who had ever started a game before this year. And the Vikings have gone undefeated with journeyman Shaun Hill and Sam Bradford, whom the Eagles traded away in the offseason.
Of course, it’s not like any of these teams have received poor quarterback play. On the contrary, the NFL’s five undefeated teams gotten very efficient play in their passing games, uncovering some breakout stars in the process. But there is one thing they all have in common – defense.
The five aforementioned teams are all in ranked in the top eight in fewest points allowed. For good measure, despite efficient quarterback play, not a single one of them ranks in the top half of the league in passing yards. Philadelphia ranks 17th, the highest among the group. That stat could be somewhat misleading, since teams with good defenses are less likely to be tailing big late in games, which would result in garbage time passing yards. But the truth remains that the NFL’s best teams in the young season have been doing it on the strength of dominant defensive performances.
Furthermore, of the top 12 defensive teams through the season’s first three weeks, only the Titans had a losing record. If you take a look at the top scoring teams, the list is far less indicative of overall record. By contrast, only half of the top 12 offensive scoring teams had a winning record entering Week 4. It’s obviously very early in the season to make any kind of definitive judgments, but the early numbers indicate that defense is the most telling factor as to why football teams win games.
That’s not to say you don’t need a good quarterback, as it’s still the single most important position in the NFL. If your team has one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, chances are they won’t be very successful, no matter how good the rest of the team is. However, it is possible to be a great team without the advantage of a perennial Pro Bowl quarterback. I would even go as far to say that the quarterback position has become overvalued because of the prevalence of the passing game in today’s NFL. It’s one thing to shell out big money for an elite Hall-of-Fame type star, but in recent years we’ve seen teams hand out questionable contracts near or above $100 million to the likes of Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, and Colin Kaepernick. It would be much wiser to use that valuable cap space to invest in other areas of need, like defense, rather than overpay for a mediocre quarterback.
It’s Time for MLB to Change September Roster Expansion
September baseball. It’s the time of the season that is inherently the most exciting, when the playoff picture takes shape and us fans get to witness memorable down-to-the-wire pennant races. There’s no denying that baseball’s final month contains the most important games of the regular season, so why then does MLB change the way the game is played in that final month?
When the rosters expand from 25 to 40 in September, of course, the intended purpose is not to change the game. It provides rookies with a chance to get some big league exposure and for teams to evaluate how numerous players may fit into their future plans heading into the offseason. That’s great, and it does provide many players with an opportunity they would not normally have had. But with so many players on a roster, it changes the way a manager can navigate through his bench or bullpen, and it sure is noticeable.
Take, for example, last night’s Braves vs. Mets game. With the Mets leading 3-2 in the 8th inning, Braves manager Brian Snitker replaced reliever Brandon Cunniff with Chaz Roe. After striking out T.J. Rivera, Terry Collins sent up the left-handed Kelly Johnson to pinch hit. Snitker countered by putting in lefty Ian Krol, to which Collins answered by pulling Johnson for Eric Campbell, who carries a .172 batting average for the season, and only a marginally better .185 against lefties. Despite this, the Braves chose to walk Campbell intentionally to face James Loney in a lefty-on-lefty matchup, but not before Collins, you guessed it, pinch hit with Kevin Plawecki, another sub .200 hitter. Plawecki proceeded to strike out to end the inning.
Surely a lot to take in, but the overall effect was taking a game that was flying by and turning it into a slogging affair which lasted well over three hours. It wouldn’t be accurate to say the late innings lacked excitement, as it was a tightly contested back and forth battle with playoff implications at stake. But it has become routine to see managers use three or more pitchers to get through just one inning in September or burn through their entire bench with players that shouldn’t even be available at the manager’s disposal.
Essentially, roster expansion makes it a whole lot easier for managers to play matchups and not have to worry about running out of players, which is a great benefit to them. But why should it be easier in the final month of the season? Before returning to the Marlins’ lineup recently, Giancarlo Stanton had been active for a couple of weeks only to be used as a pinch hitter. Similarly, the Mets currently have Juan Lagares and Lucas Duda on their active roster, but both have been used only in very specialized roles, as they are not yet fully healed from their respective injuries. If teams want to roster injured players for one particular skill set, they have every right to, but it should be at the expense of a 25-man roster spot. With 40-man rosters, no team really cares about taking up a roster spot for a player who is not healthy enough to play a full game.
For bottom division teams, expanded rosters serve more of the intended purpose of giving young players a shot to see what they can do. But for contenders, it provides an easy way to slow down the game and manage in a way that shouldn’t be done. If MLB wants the benefit of giving rookies a taste of the big leagues, do it in April instead, away from the pennant races. Most teams would welcome the ability to get a few more weeks of seeing where fringe players can fit into certain roles. Besides, it would make it easier on players, and particularly pitchers, who need some extra rest in April to get to full strength.
Another option that has been suggested which I would be okay with is expanding the rosters in September, but only declaring 25 as active before each game. That way, you have the extra players for the tomorrow in case your bullpen has been overworked or somebody is unavailable for a few days with a minor ailment. And with only 25 active for each game, it’s not changing the way the game is managed.
It’s unlikely that MLB would ever get rid of September roster expansion, because there’s no way the Player’s Association would allow it. That would mean taking away service time from many players, and costing them money. But there are a number of alternatives that deserve to be looked at so that it doesn’t take away from minor league players’ opportunities and doesn’t affect the integrity of the game by having an NFL-sized roster in the dugout.
7 NFL Players Poised for Breakout Seasons
It’s been a while since I’ve posted anything here, but from here on out, expect to see more regular and frequent posts on View From the Upper Deck. The other piece of good news is that the NFL season has gotten underway.
On the dawn of the new season, here’s a look at some players who are poised for huge seasons. A lot of these guys played pretty well last year, but I expect them to take their games to another level in 2016. I haven’t included any rookies on this list, only players who have been in the league at least one year.
C.J. Anderson, RB (Denver Broncos)
Following Peyton Manning’s retirement, the Broncos will likely lean towards more of a run-heavy offense, and that means Anderson will be the main benefactor. Anderson has the physical skills to be every down back, averaging 4.8 yards per carry for his career with great strength and speed, and he’s already off to a great start after Thursday night’s performance against the Panthers. With the Broncos’ featuring an elite defense, they should use the ground game early and often to move the ball, and if Anderson proves he’s up for the task, the fourth year pro could find himself in contention for the league’s rushing title at season’s end.
Travis Benjamin, WR (San Diego Chargers)
When he finally became a starter in his fourth NFL season in 2015, Benjamin showed off the type of big play ability he is capable of. He is primed to take an even bigger step forward this year, as he moves from Cleveland to San Diego, where he will have a much more capable quarterback throwing him the ball, as well as the benefit of lining up alongside Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates, both of whom figure to see a good deal of attention from defenders.
Stefon Diggs, WR (Minnesota Vikings)
Diggs came out of nowhere to lead the Vikings in receiving yards last season, and now finds himself the top passing target for Minnesota’s offense. Don’t expect off-the-charts fantasy numbers, as the Vikings will be without Teddy Bridgewater for the season, and their offense will still be centered around Adrian Peterson. But Diggs is ready to establish himself as a trustworthy playmaker for whoever will be throwing him the ball.
Leonard Williams, DE (New York Jets)
The Jets took a chance by using last year’s #6 overall pick to take Williams, a highly talented athlete, but one who plays a position that New York had no obvious need for. Though he could end up seeing time at both defensive end and nose tackle, Damon Harrison’s departure in free agency should open the door for Williams to get more playing time and further refine his skill set. He’s only 22 and there’s plenty to like about Williams.
Zach Miller, TE (Chicago Bears)
Miller may be 31 years old, but he finished the 2015 season strong, recording four games of at least five catches and 50 yards during the last eight weeks of the season. Not to be confused with the former Raiders and Seahawks tight end of the same name, Miller nearly doubled his career yardage total in 2015. The reason for optimism? Miller showed late last season that he could be a very useful short passing option for the Bears, and with Matt Forte gone, a shortage of depth at wide receiver, and no competition behind him at tight end, Chicago could sure use that. A late career breakout is certainly in the cards, a la Gary Barnidge.
Jameis Winston, QB (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
While Winston’s 2015 numbers can easily get lost among the depth of quality quarterbacks in today’s game, try comparing him to the historic ranks of rookie quarterbacks. Last year, he joined Cam Newton and Andrew Luck as the only rookies to pass for 4,000 yards in a season. He also added in six rushing touchdowns for good measure. Yes, he does need to improve upon his accuracy and decision making, but Winston has the athleticism and the offensive weapons around him to put up a big season.
Blake Bortles, QB (Jacksonville Jaguars)
This is a bit of a stretch since Bortles really had a breakout season last year, but I expect him to take an even bigger step forward. Bortles put up huge numbers in 2015 (4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns), but a lot of those numbers came with the Jaguars trailing big, and he turned the ball over 32 times, worst in the NFL. If Bortles can learn to protect the ball better, he can become an integral part in leading the Jaguars to their first playoff appearance since 2007.
Two other players who deserve an honorable mention are wide receivers Kevin White of the Bears and Dante Fowler Jr. of the Jaguars. Both were taken in the first round in last year’s draft, but missed the entire 2015 season due to injury. Now both of them find themselves in key roles with their respective clubs. White will be Chicago’s #2 option at wideout, alongside Alshon Jeffery, and Fowler is expected to be a key force on Jacksonville’s young defense.
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