Congratulations to the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2017. The results of the always anticipated election were announced yesterday, revealing that Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez will be inducted in Cooperstown this summer, joining former general manager John Schuerholz and former baseball commissioner Bud Selig, who were elected in early December via the Today’s Game Committee.
Bagwell finally received the great honor in his seventh year on the ballot, and it’s about time. The Houston Astros’ franchise icon ranks among the greatest first basemen in the game’s history by just about any measure. With a voter pool that is becoming much better at looking at a player’s career from multiple angles rather than relying solely on raw numbers, Bagwell was this year’s top vote getter (86.2%).
Raines was inducted on his last try, joining Red Ruffing, Joe Medwick, Ralph Kiner, and Jim Rice as the only others to be make it in their final year on the ballot. Like Bagwell, he is another player whose case has been greatly aided by the changing voter pool and by strong internet campaigns. For a stretch in the 1980s, Raines was among the best players in the game, and one of the most effective leadoff hitters ever, stealing 70 or more bases for six straight years from 1981-1986 and only getting caught 69 times during that entire period. At 86.0% of the vote, he will become the third and possibly last player to enter the Hall of Fame as a member of the Montreal Expos (depending on which cap Vladimir Guerrero chooses have on his plaque). On a side note, Raines was the first former player I met in person. I got the chance to speak with him prior to a game back when he was managing the Newark Bears of the Can-Am League and he couldn’t be any friendlier.
Finally, “Pudge” Rodriguez becomes just the second catcher ever to enter Cooperstown on his first ballot, following in the footsteps of his boyhood idol, Johnny Bench. The longtime Texas Ranger won a record 13 Gold Glove Awards as a catcher throughout his career and made 14 All-Star teams. He received 76.0% of the vote from the writers.
Coming painstakingly close to induction was Trevor Hoffman, who missed by a total of five votes out of 442 ballots cast (74.0%). First-time candidate Vladimir Guerrero missed narrowly by 15 votes (71.7%), while Edgar Martinez experienced a significant increase in percentage from last year, moving from 43.4% to 58.6%. Luckily, Hoffman and Guerrero shouldn’t have to wait too long as they both appear to be near locks for induction in 2018. Martinez has two years left on the ballot, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can gain some more momentum next year and make a push for a 2019 induction.
While a class of three certainly clears up some space on next year’s ballot, there will still be plenty of backlog, judging by who is coming onto the ballot. Chipper Jones will coast in easily and could be the first unanimous inductee, although I highly doubt it. Jim Thome has a strong chance to get in as well, so that pair will essentially replace two of Bagwell, Raines, and Rodriguez on many ballots. Also appearing for the first time will be Omar Vizquel, who undoubtedly will receive strong support, Scott Rolen and Andruw Jones, who could appeal to more sabermetrically-minded voters but have far fewer credentials based on traditional measures, and Johnny Damon and Jamie Moyer, for whom the opposite is true. Finally, there’s the possibly-still-active Johan Santana, who was great for a time but was unfortunately too limited by injuries to have much of a chance.
Although many voters will still have to make some tough cuts next year, it looks almost certain that at least three more players will get voted in, with a strong possibility of four. However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel for players who have been lingering in the 10%-25% range due to the backlog of great candidates and the restraints of a ten-player ballot limit. After 2018, there aren’t a ton of overwhelming candidates entering the ballot. Based on my observations, there won’t be any ballots after next year’s that include more than one first-ballot inductee for the foreseeable future. That creates a window for players like Gary Sheffield, Jeff Kent, Larry Walker, and Billy Wagner to make up some serious ground.
Last but not least, no matter how much we can argue about who gets in and who doesn’t, it’s awesome how much interest is garnered by the months leading up to the election results. It’s true when they say there’s no other Hall of Fame that is so captivating and drums up as much good conversation as this one does. Part of that is due to the excellent writing of people like Jay Jaffe, who has done a ton of research on the Hall of Fame and provides so much valuable insight. In addition, the work Ryan Thibodaux puts into his Hall of Fame Tracker is second to none. Being able to track the votes “live” makes the whole process all the more enjoyable.
Reaching the Baseball Hall of Fame is not easy. There are 317 people in the Hall of Fame which, considering there’s 146 years of history, is pretty exclusive. Only slightly more than 1.5 MLB players reach baseball’s greatest honor for each season that the sport is played. The exclusivity of the Hall is celebrated, which is why we care so much about who goes in and why it can’t be denied that any player voted in by the BBWAA is truly among the elite. Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez deserve every bit of this incredible honor.